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Week 6 NFL Picks – May Have Done a Little Gambling Edition

October 11, 2014 by

WEEK 5 RECORD:

DAN K: 1-2
ESPO: 0-3
DICK: 2-1
KEEF: 2-1

SEASON RECORD:

DAN K: 6-8
ESPO: 4-11-1
DICK: 7-8-1
KEEF: 9-6

DAN K

GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 AT MIAMI DOLPHINS


Well shit. I keep going 1-2 in the picks I do for this article, guess I’d better “pick” things up this week hahahahaha get it. Anyways, we have Green Bay seemingly back to form after a slow start, fresh from dismantling the Vikings 42-10, facing a Miami Dolphins team that’s been pretty hard to read thus far. Aside from the Vikings starting the godawful Christian Ponder, a big reason for the aforementioned blowout was Eddie Lacy finally getting going – Rodgers hardly had to pass the ball because Lacy was shedding tacklers at will. The Dolphins are coming off of a bye and prior to that, a right rogering of the Oakland Raiders in a chunder-inducing game at Bellend Pitch in London-Town. Earlier I said that the Dolphins are hard to read, and that’s mainly because of the play of Ryan Tannehill. The dude looks so inconsistent, one game he’ll look passable and the next like total garbage. Beating the Pats by 13, then losing to the Bills and Chiefs by 19 points each, then blowing out the Raiders, etc. It probably doesn’t help Tannehill’s psyche when his coach pulls bush-league moves like implying he could be benched when the team has no intention of doing so, but whatever. So which Dolphins team will we get? They’ll be helped by the return of Knowshon Moreno and Mike Pouncey from injuries and Reshad Jones from suspension, but Moreno could be the x-factor as a complement to Lamar Miller, who has appeared to finally live up the billing as a starting running back. The running game is what they’ll  need to keep Rodgers off the field, and considering that they have the league’s fifth best rushing attack going against the league’s worst rushing defense, there’s a good chance they’ll be able to do so.

Who to pick? I actually love the Fins in this one for a couple of reasons. First, they play teams tough at home, especially when it’s still hot in South Florida. Second, as stated above, I like their chances to get the running game going to eat clock. Third, by making the Packers -3 at Miami, they’re basically trying to tell us that Green Bay is almost a full TD better than Miami. I’m not buying that yet, regardless of their impressive win last week. Finally, like 78% of the public money is on Green Bay. In that kind of situation I’m inclined to go with the opposite side, especially if I already like them in the game. Dolphins.
 

THE PICK:  DOLPHINS +3

CAROLINA PANTHERS +7 AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

So while I was mulling this one over the news came over the “wire” that AJ Green would likely be out with a toe injury that he suffered during practice. Obviously this impacts the pick, considering he’d be the best player on the field. It’s kind of strange that the line hasn’t really moved but it’s not official that he’ll be out yet. The injury was bad enough that he had to be carted off, so it’s probably best to assume he won’t be available. The major blow to the Bengals offense is countered by the return of linebacker and QB of the defense Vontaze Burfict from a concussion, who is one of the most hard hitting, bad ass players in the NFL. I’ll even grudgingly admit that he’s one of my favorites, even if he plays for a team I hate. Last week the Bengals were a hapless victim of Tom Brady’s extreme annoyance with speculation that he (and his team) were on the decline, and I’m not sure they had a chance in hell of winning that game. Do they bounce back this week? I think so – the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL (*cough* in the regular season), and I doubt they’ll drop many more games in a similar one-sided fashion. Even without Green, Mohammed Sanu is a solid #2 receiver and Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill provide an excellent tandem at running back – and this week they get a questionable defense to tee off on.

The Panthers, meanwhile are coming off of a victory over the inconsistent Bears, and their defense, while it did allow 24 points, also forced 4 turnovers, including a crucial strip of Matt Forte late in the game. Is that defense going to show up, or the one that got shellacked in consecutive weeks by the Steelers and Ravens? I did pick the Panthers to go under their projected win total for the season, but I think they still have the talent to show up like they did at the end of last week’s game. Luke Keuchly is a cyborg, Thomas Davis got his first sack last week, and Kawann Short has become one of the best young defensive players in the game. The point is, their defense had better take advantage of Andy Dalton missing his top target and stop the run or they don’t have a chance. As far as Carolina’s offense, they need to stick with the no-huddle that served them well last week. The Bengals were victimized by the Patriots two tight ends last week, and Greg Olson is Cam Newton’s favorite target, so that seems like a promising matchup. Aside from Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin at TE and WR respectively, there’s..not much. The Panthers likely won’t be able to rely on the running game at all on Sunday, especially with Burfict back. Their running game consist of a hobbled Jonathan Stewart, a couple practice squad guys, backups, and a mean old barn cat that lives in the stadium. Basically what I’m saying is that Cam’s throwing game had best be on point.

This is a tough one. The Bengals are basically unbeatable against the spread at home (11-1 in their last 12 games) which means I shouldn’t even be wasting my time writing this one up. Also, teams tend to cover after a blowout loss, so that factor is working in their favor as well. *Larry David voice* HAVING SAID THAT, I’m going with the Panthers here. A team that forces turnovers late in games, runs the no huddle effectively, works the tight ends, can at least keep it close against this (admittedly formidable) Bengals defense. I still think the Bengals win it, but maybe by 3 or 4. Worst case scenario, it’s a push. This line has already moved down to 6.5 in some places so I’m hoping some people who actually know what they’re talking about agree with me. Panthers.

THE PICK: PANTHERS +7

DALLAS COWBOYS +9 AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I have the feeling I’m either going to look like a genius this week, or go 0-3. There’s always the danger of overthinking these things, but at the same time you can’t pick teams out a hat. Why am I mentioning this? I’ll get to it when I make the picks. Anyway, we all know the Seahawks. Legion of Boom, Russell Wilson seems to improve exponentially every game, Marshawn Lynch taking people’s heads off, and so on. I bet on the ‘Hawks last week and got home from the bar quite drunk in enough time to see the last 5 or so minutes of the game. They finished on an absolutely amazing play by Wilson to Lynch that clinched the cover, but if they hadn’t I would have gone absolutely apeshit upon seeing the refs take THREE fucking TDs away from Percy Harvin. I caught the whole game later on replay and it seems like the league is deciding to “send a message” to the Seahawks, even moreso than they are to all of the other teams with these game killing illegal contact penalties. Let me digress for a second to say that if they’re going to call this shit every three plays, they need to remove the automatic first down and just make it a 5 yard foul. This shit is all driven by fantasy football, which I enjoy playing, but come the fuck on. If I wanted to watch a four hour long game I’d drink an entire 30 pack of Coors Light and pass out in front of a NASCAR race. Anyway, back to the game.

It was really surprising to learn that the Cowboys are 4-1, like I honestly thought they’d lost more games. And I’m pretty sure I’ve watched most of the games they’ve played! Maybe I just wanted them to lose because they’re the Cowboys. I’ve mentioned this before here, but I’ve always had a soft spot for Romo. He seems like a good dude and I’m happy he’s been playing well and finally has a great running back to take the pressure off of him. Between DeMarco Murray, who I reeeeeally hope they don’t run into the ground, Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, and the ageless Jason Witten, the Cowboys have an offense as explosive as their defense is…implosive I guess? I’m saying O = Good D = Poison face sticker you got in elementary school. And they’re going up against the #1 rushing defense in the NFL, so they’ll have to pass the ball..but the Seahawks also have the Legion of Boom. So Romo will have his work cut out for him. I guess this is where we find out if the Cowboys’ 4 game win streak is the real deal.

I’m picking the Cowboys. Hear me out here. I DO NOT think that the Cowboys win this game. But this is the type of game where they’re down 14 points in the 4th quarter and Romo hits Dez Bryant deep for a TD, misses an onside kick then Seattle runs for a couple first downs on the next possession and ends the game. I think that Dallas’ offense is -just- good enough to cover but not win. In case you haven’t noticed, this is my third pick of an underdog against a good team. All three of these games could easily just as be the favorites getting a couple breaks and blowing out the other team. But I guess that’s why it’s called gambling. Cowboys cover. Happy Canadian Thanksgiving!


THE PICK: COWBOYS +9


DICK

NEW YORK GIANTS +2.5 AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Eli and company are on a three-game winning streak and the Eagles just escaped with a win against the Rams. The Giants defense is seeming to come around and Eli’s got the offense humming, but I’m not buying them just yet. This feels like the sort of game that Chip Kelly can use to break his offense loose and rack up some points while the Giants do one of their patented space out sessions on a few critical third and long plays. It’s not like the Eagles defense is setting the world on fire, but wait, it is. They have been ball hawking and scoring touchdowns (they single-handedly kept them in the Niners game) and Darren Sproles has been pretty choice returning punts. Considering that Eli isn’t the most consistent quarterback we’ve ever seen I could easily seeing him having a three touchdown game to go along with two or three picks. Foles has looked like shit the last few weeks and is due for a good game. Sure, Eli is 6-3 at Lincoln Financial Field, but it’s a division game between a couple of relative welterweights who will be thinking they have a shot at the division after Dallas gets thumped by Seattle. I’m expecting the over (51.5) and an orgy of scoring. Philly’s got more weapons than New York, their defense is geared to rattle a guy like Eli, and they are far superior on special teams so I see them winning the field position battle. Take the Eagles and the over, people.

THE PICK: EAGLES -2.5

DETROIT LIONS -1.5 AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS

When you lose a game because your idiot kicker misses three field goals there’s going to be a fuck-the-world tendency in your next game. Especially when the loss was against less than inspiring Buffalo. So, fresh from a stint in alcohol rehab is Matt Prater to take over the kicking duties and hopefully improve their awful 3-for-12 on field goals. But, Megatron, Bell, and Bush may all be either out or playing with significant injuries leaving Matt Stafford with Golden Tate and Brandon Pettigrew as the only healthy targets he has to throw to. Oh yeah, Detroit is pretty good on defense: 6th against the pass and 3rd against the run, so even with Detroit making noise about not giving Donkey Kong Suh another contract, he’s still playing for a big free agent payday. Minnesota pulled off a nice upset against Atlanta before getting their asses handed to them on Thursday night against the highly overrated Pack, so I’m expecting a bit of a bounce back and if Bridgewater plays then their offense changes dramatically simply because Christian Ponder isn’t on the field lining up under a guard or throwing the ball at his receivers’ feet. Matt Asiata is a straight ahead runner, Adrian Peterson had his bail revoked because he “smoked a little weed” and still has to face child abuse charges and is probably going to be released any week now, and the defense can’t keep being expected to make up for the sloppy play on offense. If Bridgewater is even moderately healthy he changes things drastically for Minnesota. He’s unpredictable, poised, and makes some decent decisions. Minny is at home and there’s the nice angle of two teams looking to bounce back from diametrically opposed bad losses. Defense is going to rule the day, so if you’re thinking totals (43.5) go for the under, but for the side I’ve got Detroit bouncing back with Minny keeping it close. The line feels right, so I like Detroit winning by a field goal down the stretch. Their defense is the difference maker in this one since Minnesota really doesn’t have anyone besides Cordarrelle Patterson who can open things up. It just feels like a defensive game and if we’re going to narrow it down to quarterbacks I’ll take Stafford over Bridgewater (whom I think is going to be good) in a tight one.

THE PICK: LIONS -1.5

RACIST FUCKS +3.5 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS

At first glance this seems like a gimme. The Smallpox Blankets are gruesome. They are mistake prone, don’t protect the ball, and don’t seem resilient enough to bounce back after getting pasted by Seattle. Sure, it was “only” a 10-point win, but the refs took three scores off the board. The Cards should be a huge favorite, but Carson Palmer is probably going to be out for at least another week with a busted up shoulder and his backup Drew Stanton is going through the league’s concussion protocol so if he isn’t cleared Logan Thomas will start and Patrick Peterson is the emergency quarterback. If you’re not paying attention Thomas went 1-8 against Denver and looked terrible. Everything about the Cards’ offense goes through their passing game and their defense is missing Calais Campbell and Matt Shaughnessy has also been shelved. Also, the Cards are 31st against the pass and if Kirk Cousins gets any kind of time he could air it out. The Wagon Burners have won eight straight against Arizona, are too stupid to know that they are terrible, and are in a prime position to pull off an upset. If Palmer or Stanton don’t play take the Racist Fucks. If one of them make the start, I’d lean Cards. Pay attention to the injury report on Sunday before making your bet, but with things looking the way they are now I’ve got Washington. Also, 75 percent of the public is on Arizona, so just file that away knowing that the public isn’t really paying attention to the Cards’ QB situation.

THE PICK: RACIST FUCKS +3.5

ESPO

GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 AT MIAMI DOLPHINS


First, I’d like to apologize to anyone that actually followed me last week. Yeesh! I have been scuffling pretty hard here… but I feel the tide turning. Ah feels it! 3-0 this week!

Let’s go. This week, the Packers visit sunny Miami, Florida for a tilt with the Dolphins, fresh off a bye. Many people are of the opinion that Green Bay is “back” , after Aaron Rodgers spelled out the word “R-E-L-A-X” in a press conference and they went on to have two blowouts. Rodgers probably should have thought twice before doing that, because half the people of Wisconsin had to pull out a piece of paper and write those letters down to figure out what the hell he was talking about. Ro…lex…? ohhhh Re-laaaaaax hahaha honey, gee whiz are we silly! But are they really back, like, Superb Owl contender back? I’m not so sure.

We know they have the capacity to be a Top 5 offense. Rodgers is just unreal. Jordy Nelson seems to catch everything. Randall Cobb has come around, and Eddie Lacy has looked more Lynch and less Richardson lately. But I’m still not sold on the defense. The Minny game is just a throwaway, that doesn’t even factor in my mind. Short week and Christian Ponder, I mean, fuck, CHRISTIAN PONDER? I bet some Vikings fans thought they woke up from a beautiful 7 month dream when they heard that name again. “oh no. It’s still happeningggggggg *face melts*” by the way, how shitty is it to be Ponder? Like, you’re Christian Ponder. You came into the league and it was kind of a, is-he-bad, isn’t-he-bad thing for a little while? Maybe he’s bad? He’s white and handsome, so how bad could he really be? People questioned his arm strength and he would chuckle to himself and be like “Hah, okay pal. I know how strong this thing is. *flex*. Look at you, with your little chicken arms. Do you need help holding that recorder up, dweeb? Come on Samantha, let’s blow this popsicle stand.” Samantha Ponder (neé Steele) gives the reporter a dismissive look and flicks her hair around as they saunter off. Then the whole world realizes, oh man, you’re REALLY bad at football. You make the most routine 7-step drop look like a paraplegic playing hopscotch. Finally, mercifully, you are benched. They sign Cassel and draft Bridgewater, both who at least can function as a leader of an offense. People are already forgetting about you, and then, OH SHIT! YOU’RE BACK! And you’re like, okay. This is my chance to prove those haters wrong. It’s not Teddy Time, it’s Ponder Time! Huhuh, yeah! Are you Christian Pondering what I’m Christian Pondering?! WOO YEAH! And then you go out there, and absolutely stink up the joint. 2 picks, 22 for 44, 5 YPA, just, wow, ugly. You could see it on his face. “Man. Maybe I do suck, after all…” Rough man. Rough. You know you’re the last option. The “Oh man, THAT guy’s starting?” Guy. From a starting QB to that? Ain’t easy.

Anywho. That was a long… long tangent. Miami! They’re off a bye! Moreno’s back, and Lamar Miller is ripping off 5.7 yards per carry! In fact, the Dolphins are 5th in rushing yards per game, with 142. Conversely, the Packers are yielding the most, 163 per game. OOOH EXPLOITABLE! Not enough for ya? Miami’s 7-1 in their last 8 as a home dog. And, and…. I know I threw this stat out last week in the Jets pick, which proved horribly, wildly wrong, but teams that have outrushed their opponents are 52-23 ATS this season. I think a lot of that number may come from teams that are winning the game simply running the game out more, but I’ll take a rested, frisky Miami team hosting an overly publicly valued Packer team here.

THE PICK:  DOLPHINS +3

CHICAGO BEARS +3 AT ATLANTA FALCONS

Matt Ryan deserves to be thought of as two different guys at this point. Road Ryan is Matthew Thomas Ryan (seriously, THREE first names? god you’re so white), who likes Disneyland for the candied apples and missionary sex with the lights off. Home Ryan is Matty Ice, a red-faced motivator of men, and banger of prom queens. The Falcons are simply better at home, as many teams are… but few quite so completely as the Dirty Birds. This team just came off a 4-12 season, and still manages to post a 17-7 record in its last 24 home games. Pretty impressive.

The Falcons currently sport the 3rd best offense in the NFL, and it’s done largely behind the category they’re leading in – Yards Per Play. They’re tops in the league with 6.6, mainly with some guy named Julio Jones, you may have heard of him. He’s again shown how amazing he can be while healthy, making circus catches at absurd speed look easy. They’ve also gotten major contributions from role players like Devin Hester and Antone Smith, who’s taken the rock on 11 rushes for 121 yards, and 6 catches for 156 yards! What! That’s an average of 24 yards per touch. Come on! Why can’t they give this guy some more touches? Mike Smith said he would. Mike Smith is probably the least cool Mike Smith of the three famous ones (Bubbles of Trailer Park Boys and the Arizona (neé Phoenix) Coyotes goalie). So we’ll see how that goes. Steven Jackson seriously looks like he’s in slow motion sometimes. The guy is a friggin’ warrior, but damn. It takes him like 3 strides to get to top speed, where he just trucks people over. That guy’s body has taken so much punishment, it’s insane. But he really shouldn’t be getting the touches he is anymore. Jacquizz has never been more than a pretty good change-of-pace back, and Antone is actually kind of a better version of him. I guess they like him on special teams, so that cuts into his reps. We’ll see. Any way you cut it, this team can get down the field.

While Atlanta looks vastly inferior on the road, Chicago has been just as inconsistent, only spread out between all their games. They can move the ball, we know this. Forte is great, the wideouts are arguably the best duo in the league. Bennett is good. But they just can’t really put it together. The two wins were a bit flukey. SF melted down as did the Jets. The defense can make big plays, Kyle Fuller especially has been huge, but they can’t dependably stop teams. The way they defend the field sometimes is truly terrifying. Chris Conte makes big plays and then gets beaten like a mule.  And at the end of the day, it’s Smokin’ Jay Cutler as well. He’s just a gunslinger and he simply has many good days and a few implosion days. Anyway, that’s all I got. I feel like this a high-scoring affair, with the Falcons pulling away at the end.

THE PICK: FALCONS -3

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4 AT TENNESSEE TITANS

People say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing but expecting different results. They can go fuck themselves. If I keep opening the refrigerator door, EVENTUALLY I am going to find some new food in there! It’s just science. I would submit that the definition of insanity is picking the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover the spread EVERY WEEK in my pick ’em league, like I did. Okay I lied, I took Indy to cover against them in week 3. But aside from that, every week!! Why?! I’m crazy, I think. They are 0-5 against the spread, by the way, for those not keeping up with the goings-on in the penis state.

But THIS! THIS IS THE WEEK! I can feel it in my bones. First of all: Bet on the team with the coolest names. Blake. Bortles. We’re out of Bortles license plates in the gift shop, I repeat, we are out of Bortles license plates in the gift shop. Excuse me, my quarterback is also named Bortles! Storm Johnson. STORM. JOHNSON. I can’t even. Man, imagine if there was a guy named Storm Bortles? Now that would be the coolest ever. Yeah. But I mean anyway, both these teams are absolutely putrid. The Titans went up 28-3 on Cleveland and still lost. How does that even happen!? They don’t know who’s starting for them? Will it be Jake Locker, who will probably get injured taking the first snap? Will it be Charlie “Clipboard Jesus” Whitehurst, who is the definition of the word “game-manager”? Will it be rookie Zach Mettenberger in his very first NFL start? Who knows?! You know what I do know? IT’S BORTLE TIME. Bortles has made some fuck ups, as you’d expect any rookie QB behind a porous offensive line with no running game to do. But he just looks like a quarterback, damnit! He’s got a great touch and great vision. This team was playing neck-and-neck with Pittsburgh before a late pick-6 sealed it. That’s really more of a statement to the defense, who have been horrible, but Pittsburgh was a top-5 offense before that game. Not too shabby.

I wish I took this while the line was still +6, but I don’t give a fuck. In fact, I’m thinking the Jags win outright. Take the Jags! I’m not crazy, you’re the one who’s crazy! All I wanted was a Pepsi, just one Pepsi, and you wouldn’t give it to me!

THE PICK: JAGUARS +4

KEEF

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3 AT BUFFALO BILLS

THE PICK:

CHICAGO BEARS +3 AT CAROLINA PANTHERS

THE PICK:

BALTIMORE RAVENS -3 AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

THE PICK:

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