One Oscar After Another (2026)

It’s Oscar time again, and I’m here to help you all out with my extremely accurate predictions! Shockingly, Amazon’s Ice Cube-starring War of the Worlds is nowhere to be found in the nominations. I’ll comment on some other snubs and personal favorites in the paragraphs below, but scroll to the end if you just want the predictions. 

BEST PICTURE: 

Personally, I at least like every movie in this category, with the exception of F1 (disregard if you enjoy the Top Gun movies; this one is probably for you, too), but the obvious frontrunner for this top prize is One Battle After Another. Paul Thomas Anderson has been turning out masterpieces for decades and this is most likely his year to shine at the Oscars. Sinners could pull an upset, though, and the horror fan in me would kind of love to see it happen. Fitting that my own personal favorite, Marty Supreme, would be such an underdog, just like its scrappy hustler antihero. 

Prediction: One Battle After Another 

Favorite: Marty Supreme 

BEST DIRECTOR: 

Pretty sure this one goes to PTA even if Sinners does get Best Picture. I’m still stanning for Marty, a recurring pattern you’re doing to see a lot. 

Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another 

Favorite: Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme 

BEST ACTOR: 

Michael B. Jordan has pulled ahead in the odds for his excellent double turn in Sinners, and he only gained voter sympathy after the notorious incident at the BAFTAs (where he also won), while Timothée Chalamet has only lost sympathy recently for his dismissive comments on opera and ballet. The smart money is probably on Jordan at this point, but this is the only category Marty might actually win, and it’s too close a race for me not to stick with my guy. 

Prediction: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme 

Favorite: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme 

BEST ACTRESS: 

This one is far less close, and I’d be shocked to see Jessie Buckley lose it. Much as I love her in everything I’ve seen, including Hamnet, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is a much more interesting movie to me, and Rose Byrne is a revelation in it. Would have been nice to see Sally Hawkins recognized for her incredible performance in Bring Her Back, but I guess the Academy still hasn’t fully embraced horror. 

Prediction: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet 

Favorite: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 

The only one I can see possibly winning over Sean Penn’s iconic turn as Steven J. Lockjaw is Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value, and as a longtime fan of his work (Dogville just might be my favorite movie), I wouldn’t mind seeing it happen. However, I’ve been a fan of Delroy Lindo even longer (Malcolm X might also be my favorite movie), and the consummate character actor has never been better than in Sinners. I’m sad to see Adam Sandler once again get snubbed for his work in Jay Kelly, but if they didn’t give him the nod for Uncut Gems, why did we think this would be the one? 

Prediction: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another 

Favorite: Delroy Lindo, Sinners 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

Almost as close a race as Best Actor, and Teyana Taylor could easily be another part of the One Battle After Another sweep for her incendiary performance as Perfidia Beverly Hills, but I’m betting on Amy Madigan for her instant horror icon Aunt Gladys. Horror has been getting more recognition at the Oscars recently, with The Substance landing multiple nominations last year and Sinners shattering the record for nominations this year, and I am all the way here for it. 

Prediction: Amy Madigan, Weapons 

Favorite: Amy Madigan, Weapons 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

With 16 overall nominations, this is one I’m almost certain Ryan Coogler has in the bag for Sinners. I remain beholden to my underdog favorite, but It Was Just an Accident is a close second for me.  

Prediction: Ryan Coogler, Sinners 

Favorite: Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

I have yet to read any Thomas Pynchon, so I can only imagine how many liberties PTA took with his novel Vineland, but I don’t need to know these details to recognize One Battle After Another as a hell of a screenplay, vibrant and original and crackling with energy. I am, on the other hand, a big fan of the original South Korean film Save the Green Planet!, and I love what Bugonia screenwriter Will Tracy did with it even more. 

Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another 

Favorite: Will Tracy, Bugonia 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 

KPop Demon Hunters is an undeniable juggernaut and one of the very safest bets here, but my personal favorite is Little Amélie, a magical movie that captures the experience of being young and experiencing everything for the first time in a gorgeously inventive animation style. A big snub and perhaps my favorite animated movie of the year, though, is the delightfully chaotic Dog Man, which feels like it was created by a team of eight-year-olds, in the best way possible. 

Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters 

Favorite: Little Amélie 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: 

I find this to be an overall stronger category than Best Picture (no Top Gun on wheels to be found here), with two of the five on that list as well (Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent). While Sentimental Value saw wide release much earlier and has therefore presumably been seen by more voters, nothing I’ve seen since the end of last year rocked me half as hard as Sirāt, an absolutely stunning work of pure cinema in the glorious tradition of The Wages of Fear and Sorcerer. 

Prediction: Sentimental Value 

Favorite: Sirāt 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 

I have only seen three of these, and two of those (The Perfect Neighbor and The Alabama Solution) involve very upsetting stories about “stand your ground” laws and their disastrous consequences. All three are excellent, and I am probably biased in my personal favorite choice by my love for the work of its main subject, Andrea Gibson. My absolute favorite documentaries of 2025 were both snubbed, however, so a quick shoutout to two odes to the power of human creativity: Secret Mall Apartment and Grand Theft Hamlet. 

Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor 

Favorite: Come See Me in the Good Light 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 

Sinners is very much a music movie, and Ludwig Göransson’s score is integral to its effectiveness, but the one I found most compelling is the tense, eerie soundscape of Bugonia. 

Prediction: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners 

Favorite: Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 

“Golden” is a perfect pop song, one of the catchiest I’ve ever heard, and like everything about KPop Demon Hunters, I was pleasantly surprised at how much I liked it. Ultimately, though, I am a sad old man, and Nick Cave’s haunting ballad is obviously more for me. 

Prediction: “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters 

Favorite: “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams 

BEST CASTING: 

A brand-new category this year (and yet they still won’t recognize stunt performers), the smart money here is on Sinners, but any movie that casts Abel Ferrara as a sleazy hustler named Ezra gets my vote. 

Prediction: Francine Maisler,  Sinners 

Favorite: Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme 

BEST SOUND: 

The sound is undoubtedly a big part of what makes a movie like F1 work, to the extent that it does, and I personally would have enjoyed it more if anything about it had appealed to me enough to see it on a big screen with big sound. Sirāt, on the other hand, is actually a great movie rather than a cliche-ridden bore, and the sound is extraordinary. No contest for me. 

Prediction: Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta, F1 

Favorite: Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas, Sirāt 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 

Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein has its flaws, but they are mostly character and narrative ones. Visually, it’s pretty stunning, not least because of the work in this category. 

Prediction: Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau, Frankenstein 

Favorite: Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau, Frankenstein 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 

The likely winner in this category and my personal favorite have a lot in common, employing a lot of handheld, on-the-fly camerawork to help convey the excitement and the feeling that you are there in the midst of the action, as well as a grainy, 70s-style vibe that both movies share. This is one of several categories Battle is sure to win, but I’m still rooting for the underdog. Shoutout to Train Dreams, too; simply a gorgeous movie.
Prediction: Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another 

Favorite: Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: 

As with Production and Costume Design, Frankenstein is a no-brainer here, but my pick is the grisly practical effects of the lesser-seen period horror delight The Ugly Stepsister. A very pleasant surprise just to see it nominated. 

Prediction: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey, Frankenstein 

Favorite: Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 

The sumptuous wardrobe displayed in Frankenstein is sure to be the winner here, but I prefer the fashions of longtime Spike Lee collaborator Ruth E. Carter in Sinners, particularly the dope-ass suits sported by twin brothers Smoke and Stack. 

Prediction: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein 

Favorite: Ruth E. Carter, Sinners 

BEST FILM EDITING: 

The editing in One Battle After Another is key to maintaining its exhilarating pace, but that is also true of Marty Supreme, especially in the riveting table tennis scenes (I feel Marty would disapprove of calling it ping-pong). 

Prediction: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another 

Favorite: Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 

I’m torn between thinking it’s super-cool that James Cameron has been able to keep successfully producing his weird-ass, counterintuitively lucrative vision, and not being all that personally invested in said vision. I made the mistake of watching the second installment at home and consequently enjoyed it a lot less than the other two. Even with the benefit of 3D projection, these movies are goofy and overlong, but the visual effects are undeniably as good as it gets. 

Prediction: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: Fire and Ash 

Favorite: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: Fire and Ash 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: 

Prediction: The Girl Who Cried Pearls 

Favorite: Forevergreen 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: 

Prediction: All the Empty Rooms 

Favorite: All the Empty Rooms 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: 

Prediction: The Singers 

Favorite: Two People Exchanging Saliva 

And here is how Ezra did. An amazing 83.3% Accuracy. Great job, Ezra!

PREDICTIONS RECAP: 

Best Picture: One Battle After Another √

Best Director: One Battle After Another √

Best Actor: Marty Supreme 

Best Actress: Hamnet √

Best Supporting Actor: One Battle After Another (Sean Penn) √

Best Supporting Actress: Weapons √

Best Original Screenplay: Sinners √

Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another √

Best Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters √

Best International Feature: Sentimental Value √

Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor 

Best Original Score: Sinners √

Best Original Song: KPop Demon Hunters√ 

Best Casting: Sinners 

Best Sound: F1 √

Best Production Design: Frankenstein √

Best Cinematography: One Battle After Another 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein √

Best Costume Design: Frankenstein√ 

Best Film Editing: One Battle After Another√ 

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash √

Best Animated Short: The Girl Who Cried Pearls √

Best Documentary Short: All the Empty Rooms √

Best Live Action Short: The Singers√